The Federal Reserve Will Act Today

The Federal Reserve Board oversees a rate known as Fed Funds, and its Federal Open Markets Committee meets today. No change in the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.50% is expected. Fed Funds are currently coming down since they were first cut ahead of the election in September:

I wrote right after that that readers should fight the Fed, and this was a decent call. The Fed has cut rates by 1% since then (0.25% in early November and then 0.25% again in January, but stocks, which rallied a lot into 2025, have rolled over it seems.

Interest rates have increased despite the Fed's lowering of Fed Funds. When I wrote that piece in October, the 30-year Treasury was then 4.03%. While it has dropped since the recent peak, it was at 4.58% yesterday. Even the 2-year has increased! Here is the yield curve from Bloomberg's website:

Here is the action in stocks since then:

The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is up slightly, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has dropped slightly, but both have declined substantially since their peaks earlier this year. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has dropped over the past six months and since the recent peak.

The Fed will likely do nothing today, as it is in a tough spot. Perhaps more importantly, its actions, one way or the other, aren't likely to change things. As I have discussed before, rates seem high only to young people who weren't around to experience the early 1980s or haven't studied it. Mortgages, which impact many folks, are higher today than they were six months ago. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac, is at 6.65% now compared to 6.09% six months ago.

I continue to be bearish on stocks and to advocate that long-term investors cut exposure or hedge their holdings. I also really like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Gold continues to rally, showing concerns about inflation. TIPS make more sense to me as I have explained previously. Inaction, which is what I expect, is actually an action for the FOMC. I don't expect the FOMC to solve our big debt issues.