Gold Is Soaring

Gold prices have increased greatly. In 2025, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) had gained 17.3%, and in 2024 it rose 26.7%. That's a combined gain since the end of 2023 of 48.6%. Going back to the end of 2022, it has soared 67.5%. This is more than stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 (SPY), though the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is up more:

Since the elections, stocks are down and gold is up:

What is going on?

As I have written before on Seeking Alpha, investors fear inflation. In early February, the article about why investors should buy the PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund ETF (LTPZ) discussed how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a better inflation hedge than gold.

Well, since then, LTPZ has gone up, but GLD has gone up more:

There is more to TIPS than just the long-maturity ones. I follow two other ETFs: the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (full range of maturities) and the iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF. All have gone up since that article:

I still like LTPZ for the long-term, but I no longer own any. I own a lot of STIP in my charitable fund, though I reduced it on Thursday.

I am open-minded to inflation increasing, but I don't believe that gold will keep going up. I bought on Friday an ETF, ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL), which is a leveraged inverse gold fund that is down 26% year-to-date and 44.3% over the past year. For now, I am cautious on bonds, which are up year-to-date and very negative on gold.

So, I am not necessarily negative on inflation, but I don't think that gold will protect speculators. They should see what Bitcoin has been doing recently. Over the past 14 months since it launched, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has gained 78.6%, which is more than how much gold has gained at +51.2%. In 2025, though, IBIT is down more than 10%:

So, gold is soaring, while stocks are tanking along with Bitcoin. Hmm.