Why I Now Like Cannabis Stock Organigram Global Again

I have been following the cannabis sector since early 2013, and the stocks are very volatile to say the least. When I started following it, adult-use cannabis sales were legal nowhere. Now, about half of states in the U.S. have adult-use sales, and Canada has had legal adult-use cannabis since 2018. When I started following cannabis, its current medical cannabis program had not yet started, as Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations (MMPR) started in 2014 and was replaced in 2016 by Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations (ACMPR). MMPR was a very big deal, but the legalization for adults was even bigger.

One of the companies that I follow now and that I have followed since it first started trading in Canada in 2014 is Organigram Global (OGI). While I have often stated here that this blog is not the primary place where I share my thoughts on cannabis stocks, I have written several times about Organigram, including early 2024, when I disclosed that I no longer liked OGI (at $2.02), another one a couple of months later explaining why I liked it again (at $1.86) and then late last year, when I suggested that I loved OGI (at $1.51). The stock closed Friday, a year later, at $1.64, so it is up. OGI is part of the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index and has outpaced it from the end of November a year ago, rising 8.6%. The Global Cannabis Stock Index has declined by 18.3% since then to 6.08.

I have written a lot about Organigram in the newsletters at New Cannabis Ventures (free of charge!) as well as in my articles at Seeking Alpha. NCV is free and has a lot of information on OGI, but just a few of the newsletters are dedicated to the company. You can see all of the articles that cover OGI, including the newsletters that do, here. I have been writing at Seeking Alpha since early 2007 and run 420 Investor there now. I am no longer publishing just cannabis articles there, but I have written several articles on OGI over the past year. You can access all of my articles, but here are the titles and dates for the OGI articles:

• 12/01/24: Organigram Could Soar In 2025

• 02/23/25: Organigram Is A Small-Cap Bargain

• 09/20/25: Organigram Is No Longer A Bargain (Rating Downgrade)

• 11/23/25: Sell Village Farms And Buy Organigram

Seeking Alpha limits readers to their access of articles. I think that its subscription service that allows access and has many other benefits is a good deal at $299 per year, but there is a Black Friday special offering that reduces Seeking Alpha Premium to $239 for the first year.

I will discuss some big news for OGI that came out last week and assess the stock in this article.

Organigram Replaces Its Retiring CEO

I was never a fan of the first CEO of Organigram, its founder, but I really liked his replacement. Greg Engel was a medical cannabis company kind of person (with his pharmaceutical background) and was replaced after leaving in May 2021 by Beena Goldenberg in August 2021 (for a start in September), when the bear market for cannabis stocks was already six months old. Was she a good CEO? Well, here is how the chart has been since she was named:

You are not alone if you look at this chart and determine that she must have been a bad CEO, but this is not the right conclusion in my view. The entire cannabis market has dropped dramatically since her tenure began. Since the end of July in 2021, the GCSI has declined 88.5%, and OGI has dropped 84.4%. So, is she good? I think that there is a lot more to look at than just the stock price.

Goldenberg joined after exiting Supreme Cannabis, where she was the CEO at the time it was sold to Canopy Growth. I never credited her for that transaction. Before Supreme, she worked for many years at Hain Celestial Canada, including as the CEO of the unit. I don't think I ever met her face-to-face, but I communicated with her by email, and we did interview her at New Cannabis Ventures. I certainly watched her actions, and I think she did a decent job.

In May, the company announced that Goldenberg would be retiring when the fiscal year ended in September, but the company did not name a new CEO by that time. I was a little freaked out actually! On October 21, a full three weeks after she was supposed to have retired, a press release provided an update, suggesting that she would stay on until the end of November. Well, they named a new CEO on 11/25: James Yamanaka. I had never heard of him and still don't know that much. He starts in mid-January, but the timing is subject to immigration matters.

I like what I do know about Mr. Yamanaka. He has been working at British American Tobacco (BTI) for two decades, most recently as Global Head of Strategy since mid-2023. Who is BTI? A huge owner of OGI and a dedicated partner. BTI first bought the stock in March of 2021, ahead of Goldenberg's start and just after cannabis stocks had peaked. The increased the position substantially at a much lower price from 2024 into 2025, a deal that was announced two years ago. The stock trades below this premium price that BTI paid.

To me, this is a sign that BTI might buy OGI. The company has already done so much with its investee. It is too early to conclude this will happen, but it helps to have an insider like the new pending CEO inside. BTI has a lot of market cap and access to capital and could buy OGI without impacting its financials at all. At $58.66, the market cap is about $127 billion, and it has $6.7 billion in cash. OGI, at $1.64, has a market cap of just $258 million. BTI trades at a low PE of 12.6X on a forward basis, while OGI does not really have EPS. What it does have is a good balance sheet, with a lot of cash and no debt. OGI trades at 1.3X its tangible book value, while BTI trades at 2X book value with negative tangible equity due to intangibles and goodwill. What I like about the timing is that the recent news about hemp cannabinoid product prohibition is negative for OGI, which has launched products in the U.S. and which could really interest BTI. The CEO was named after this bad news hit.

OGI has plunged in price since BTI first invested in it, but the ratio of BTI stock relative to OGI has been boosted by the rise in BTI recently. Here is the chart of the two stocks since the end of 2020:

So, BTI has gone up, while OGI has dropped a ton. Looking at it more recently, OGI has gotten cheaper to BTI in 2025:

If BTI liked OGI enough to buy it big-time in 2024, the company should like it better now!

Organigram Is A Cheap Stock

Organigram was extremely cheap when BTI was adding to it, but BTI was paying a big premium. The stock was trading below tangible book value for a while but now trades slightly above it. Its tangible book value took a hit on a recent acquisition, but 1.3X seems very low for a company that has net cash. With that said, Cronos Group (CRON), which also has a very large investor in Altria (MO), trades at tangible book value and has a lot of cash.

Organigram still has not announced when it will report its fiscal Q4, due in December, but it has used cash to fund its operations through the first three quarters of FY25. There are not that many analysts covering the stock, but there is a revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook that I access at Koyfin. For FY26, the company is projected to grow revenue by 15% and adjusted EBITDA by 67%. For FY27, revenue is expected to increase by 12% with adjusted EBITDA growing 39%. Looking at the current enterprise value, the stock trades at 12.9X projected adjusted EBITDA over the next four quarters (75% FY26 and 25% FY27). This is not so low that it could not get lower, but it is not bad for a federally legal, NASDAQ-listed company that is growing rapidly.

Organigram Has a Nice Chart

While OGI has dropped a lot over the past five years, it has stabilized over the past two years as it has increased 28.1% at a time when the Global Cannabis Stock Index has plunged 21.7%. Of course, the S&P 500 has rallied even more than OGI since then, jumping 49.7%. Here is how OGI has done relative to other large Canadian LPs during this two-year period:

It's no Village Farms (VFF), but it has outpaced its peers, especially Canopy Growth (CGC) and Tilray Brands (TLRY), both of which have seen their share-counts soar as they have fought their debt loads. By the way, I wrote here about VFF in March of 2024 as I discussed a certain type of cannabis stock that I like:

"Village Farms closed at $1.03. It has rallied a lot recently! The stock is up 35% year-to-date. It has a small amount of net debt. Unlike Organigram, it has not outside investor (yet!). What stands out most to me is that it trades at just 54% of its tangible book value. The company does a good job in Canada, and there are international markets in which it participates. I don't like that their core business is produce. I also don't like their efforts to get into the CBD market. My view, though, is that just the Canadian LP is worth more than the entire market cap of $117 million..."

VFF, which closed at $3.96, has soared this year after finally spinning out the produce business. I do think this rally is way overdone now. The stock has moved from 54% of tangible book value, which was way too low, to 210%, which seems too high compared to its peers.

The chart of OGI looks pretty attractive to me. It currently trades at a 8% premium to its 150-day moving average and bounced off of it recently:

I boosted my model portfolio position recently in the $1.50 area and I have not reduced the position. The stock is 31% above its six-month low, but it traded as low as $0.85 in April, so it has rallied 93% from that depressed level. The 52-week high set in early October is 27% higher. The price that BTI paid in 2024 and early 2025 when it bought stock directly from the company was C$3.22, which currently is $2.30, which is 40% above the current price.

There is still an open gap above created in early 2024, when Health Canada ruled against it in March. I saw this as a negative not because of the news but because the stock had run up so much. Here is what CEO Goldenberg said then:

We are disappointed with the outcome of Health Canada’s further review of our Jolts product. Our patented Jolts lozenge was launched over two years ago following significant research and development and was specifically designed to appeal to consumers looking to access regulated and tested ingestible products from the legal market that met their needs for potency and price. We are currently assessing our options to continue to meet the needs of consumers while retaining them within the legal market.

Beena Goldenberg, CEO of Organigram

I think that the gap to $2.49 can be filled over time. I doubt that if BTI were to buy the rest of OGI it would pay that much, but $2.49 is 52% above the current price. If I had to guess what price BTI might pay, it would be near $2.30. If they paid a little less, they would get it cheaper than where they last bought, and if they paid a little more it could make them look smart for buying it from the company at a lower price. Again, it's too early to count on a BTI acquisition in my view. With that said, the recent pop in the stock (it rose 10.8% last week after my upgrade to Buy at Seeking Alpha) does not seem to be driven by takeover talk, as I have not seen a single article suggesting it.

Conclusion

For those reading this that are interested in stocks, my goal was to explain why OGI is the best bet among the Canadian LPs that I cover. That does not mean it will go up, but it could go up a lot! It is my favorite Canadian LP that I cover at 420 Investor, and my position size in my model portfolio is currently 12.1%. I have not liked Canopy Growth for a long time and recently moved to Neutral on that stock. I own Cronos Group as well at 6.6%. I hated Tilray Brands, then I liked it, then I hated it again (and looked silly at times on my timing), but I hate it a lot less after the collapse. I loved Village Farms (VFF), and it kept dropping. I was smart enough or lucky enough to stick with it after it soared, but I have transitioned to a Strong Sell in a poorly timed manner. I don't cover SNDL (SNDL), but I did write about it negatively at Seeking Alpha at a much higher price.

Here is the most recent OGI investor presentation, which was released in August, ahead of this new CEO naming but after the news that Goldenberg was retiring:

OGI FY25-Q3 Presentation.pdf

Download PDF • 2.90MB

For those who are reading this because they are interested in Cannabis legalization, there is a big lesson here, though that was not my point of writing this article. I have long told my subscribers at 420 Investor and others that legalization in the U.S. will be very difficult, and it has been. I have long suggested that the Canadians set a good example in how to do it, though it was very challenging. First, they had a national medical program (we don't yet). Then, Justin Trudeau campaigned for prime minister in 2015 with cannabis legalization for adult-use as one of the three items on his platform. Perhaps family legacy was the reason Canadians elected him, but maybe it was cannabis!

It took Canada a full three years to get it done, and it almost did not happen, but it did. The Canadian program has had a lot of challenges, but it is huge and successful too. It did not do a lot for Trudeau, who lost his wife and then lost his position too. America can learn a lot by studying the evolution of cannabis in Canada over the past 26 years.