3rd Straight Weekly Decline
Last week, I discussed how odd the action had become for stocks, and they did fall again this week, with bonds rallying again. That's three straight weeks!
A Look at the Market
It was another rare week, with bonds doing better and stocks doing worse. The S&P 500 has returned 11.6% with dividends included, and the price is up 10.8% for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in 2026 so far. This leaves the market on track to post a return for the full year right over 14%. At the same time, iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has declined in price in 2026. With dividends included, the return has been -0.5%, which is well below cash.
In July, the last month that ended on a Friday (or a Saturday or Sunday), I combined the weekly update with the monthly review. This month, I will publish a separate monthly review tomorrow and share a topic worth reviewing. Note that November and December end on days besides Friday, Saturday or Sunday.
ETF Model Portfolio Update
This ETF model portfolio, which is measured against 60% SPY and 40% AGG, is down slightly year-to-date relative to its benchmark. This week, I did a few trades that were published here instead of on my Seeking Alpha blog. For those who would like real-time alerts (free of charge for now), just subscribe to the blog.
I haven't written any ETF articles on this blog or on TalkMarkets recently, but I did share some on ETFs and stocks at Medium:
Going into the week, my model portfolio equity exposure totaled 51.7%, spread out across three ETFs. Here is what I did this week:
Wednesday: I reduced Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR).
Thursday: I exited VBR and added to ProShares S&P 600 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (SMDV).
Friday: I reduced ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats (REGL).
Here is the current model portfolio, which now has 46.7% equity exposure in two ETFs and fixed income exposure in two TIPS ETFs that total 39.4%, with cash at 13.9%:
After starting strong, the model portfolio had a rough Q3, but it is now back on track. The S&P 500 posted an all-time high in early October, but it looks like a double-top to me. The Russell 2000 posted an all-time high in mid-August but has pulled back more than 10% from that high, though it is bouncing now. Being underweight stocks all year, my return relative to the 60/40 index is higher again after going negative in early October. It is currently about +4.6% over10 months. This was a solid week of over 1% outperformance. As the S&P 500 fell and the Aggregate Bond Index bounced again, the model portfolio, which was up, outperformed the index as it fell but fell less than its index.
The early year-to-date strong relative performance was not due to superior returns on the equity ETFs. My TIPS ETFs have done reasonably okay relative to AGG, at least until very recently, but they aren't exactly boosting the return. I have had positive returns from three ETFs, two of which I no longer hold and one of which was down a lot year-to-date but rallied while I held it, and there has been some good trading that has helped me with a bad overall asset allocation weighting.
How I Can Help You
I enjoy analyzing ETFs and stocks, and I like sharing my thinking in writing. I was considering starting a subscription service or joining one that is already being published. What things would you as an investor like to see offered?
If you are an investment professional, I would like to work with you as well. I can help educate financial consultants about the ETFs, and I can work with management at investment firms to help create model portfolios or potential ETF investments. Please let me know if your firm would be interested in this.
My ETF articles at Seeking Alpha, written under the alias The Intelligent ETF Investor, shared a lot of my ideas. I continue to share those ideas here on this blog.
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