July ETF Review

July was a tough month for both stocks, which ended unchanged, and bonds, which fell, after a very strong Q2 for stocks. Stocks are up in 2026, though they are performing very differently than they have been over the past few years.

During July, I decided to stop writing at Seeking Alpha, as I explained on Sunday. Not to worry! I am still writing a lot, and I am working on finding a new spot. Last week, I wrote about the challenges for bonds.

The Market

July was a rough month, though stocks did advance this week. The S&P 500 has returned 10.1% with dividends included, and the price is up 9.6% for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in 2026 so far. This leaves the market on track to post a return for the full year below 20%. At the same time, iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has declined in price in 2026. With dividends included, the return has been -0.6%, which is negative and well below cash.

During July, the S&P 500 fell in price by 0.1% to 7489.72. SPY was fractionally higher. Here is the entire list of 88 ETFs sorted by return in July:

The big story for the month was how volatile stocks were despite ending unchanged. SPY started the month well but then pulled back. It was down almost 2.4% month-to-date on July 29th and recovered the last two days of the month.

Among the 88 ETFs that I track, there was just one double-digit gainer, Energy SPDR ETF (XLE), returning 12.1%. The big losers were from the Semiconductor industry, with iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) returning -21.2% and VanEck Semi ETF (SMH) returning -17.6%. They are both still doing very well year-to-date despite the sharp decline in July. In fact, they are the two best ETFs by far in 2026.

The newspapers have conveyed a story that had some impact it appears on the semiconductors this week. The New York Times today included an excellent description of the near-death of a hedge fund, Inside the Meltdown of a Wunderkind's A.I Hedge Fund that was published yesterday. Reported Rob Copeland explained the situation very well and gave a good history of Leopold Aschenbrenner and the fund, Situational Awareness. Aschenbrenner is very young, apparently very smart and very tied to the industry, but the meltdown, similar to what happened with Long-Term Capital Markets in 1998. The biggest difference was that the Federal Reserve did not have to step in. Instead, it was another hedge fund, Citadel (Ken Griffin). No one should be angry with Situational Awareness or its founder. The mistake that they made was extremely visible and should not have surprised anyone: too much leverage.

ETF Model Portfolio Update

Looking at the sectors in the S&P 500, the returns in July ranged from -8.0% for Technology to 12.1% for Energy. Technology, now up 22.1% year-to-date, is the largest sector, while Energy, up 35.0% year-to-date, is much smaller. Here are these two sectors year-to-date:

Consumer Discretionary had a big move high on Friday, but it fell in July nonetheless and has returned -2.4% year-to-date. The only other sector that has declined in 2026 is Communication Services, down 7.5%. It did rise 1.0% in July.

I am attaching my data for the ETFs that I follow sorted alphabetically:

ETF Review for July 2026.pdf

Download PDF • 468KB

While I was not positioned for such a strong rally in stocks, the Intelligent ETF Investor Balanced Model Portfolio performed reasonably well. For the month of July the model portfolio returned 1.0%. This was better than the balanced index, which returned -0.55%. Year-to-date, the model portfolio has gained 11.39%, which is 5.5% better than the balanced index return.

The Model Portfolio

This ETF model portfolio, which is measured against 60% SPY and 40% AGG, is up relative to its benchmark. This week, I did several trades, which were published on here instead of on my Seeking Alpha blog. For those who would like real-time alerts (free of charge for now), just subscribe to this blog (free of charge).

I posted an article here on this blog and one at TalkMarkets:

• Morningstar Scores with Acquisition

• Whirlpool Is Down A Lot But Struggling With High Debt

Going into the week, my model portfolio equity exposure totaled 26.7%, spread out across two ETFs. Here is what I did this week:

• Tuesday: I trimmed ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and added more iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) after starting a position early in the day.

• Wednesday: I exited IBIT.

Here is the current model portfolio, which now has 25.6% equity exposure in two ETFs and fixed income exposure in four ETFs that totals 70.9%:

I have been wrong this year, at least so far, as stocks keep rallying. The rally has been until Friday eight weeks ago (June 5th), when stocks had their worst day of the year. Since then, the S&P 500 has not made a new high, though it sure has tried. Small-caps did again make a new high in early July. Despite being underweight stocks all year, my return relative to the 60/40 index is higher by about 5.5% in seven months. While the S&P 500 rose this week and the Aggregate Bond Index fell again too, this model portfolio was down slightly during the week.

The year-to-date strong relative performance is not due to superior returns on my current equity ETFs. My TIPS ETFs have done okay relative to AGG, but they aren't exactly boosting the return. VGSH isn't helping too much either. So, what has it been? I have had positive returns from three ETFs, two of which I no longer hold and one of which is down a lot year-to-date that I just repurchased recently, and there has been some good trading.

How Can I Help You?

I enjoy analyzing ETFs and stocks, and I like sharing my thinking in writing. I am considering starting a subscription service or joining one that is already being published. What things would you as an investor like to see offered?

If you are an investment professional, I would like to work with you as well. I can help educate financial consultants about the ETFs, and I can work with management at investment firms to help create model portfolios or potential ETF investments. Please let me know if your firm would be interested in this.

My ETF articles at Seeking Alpha, written under the alias The Intelligent ETF Investor, shared a lot of my ideas. I continue to share those ideas here on this blog.