The NASDAQ-100 Is at an All-Time High - Buy???

The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) extended the big rally since early April, and it closed at 539.78 last night. That was the highest close ever, and it is trading at an all-time high in pre-market trading today. At the close last night, it was up 5.6% year-to-date (+5.9% with the dividend).

The price has rallied a lot since the Tariff news hit the market in early April. That was some collapse! Even a bearish person like me saw that as a near-term buying opportunity. I published an article in Seeking Alpha too.

That article was pretty well-timed, and small stocks did rally, but not as much as QQQ! The Russell 2000 (IWM) actually lagged the S&P 500 (SPY) too.:

Part of what has driven the QQQ over the past few years is something that I have discussed here previously, the Magnificent 7. These leading stocks have put in a mixed performance in 2025 so far, with three outpacing QQQ, and four declining. In fact, three have lost more than 10% in 2025:

Looking at the action from the low in April on 4/7, there have been some big rallies in the Magnificent 7:

Again, three of these have outpaced the QQQ, but this time the underperformers are all up. The best one, Tesla (TSLA) has more than doubled in less than three months.

I think another interesting day to look at for performance since then is 11/5, election day. The reelection of Trump was not fully expected. QQQ has returned over 10% since then with dividends included, and, once again, three of the Magnificent 7 have outpaced it:

Tesla, which benefited a lot more earlier, leads the way. I am short TSLA (through TSLZ),but I have been covering that short. I am also short NVIDIA (NVDA) a bit (through NVD). I am most short QQQ (through SQQQ). I am also short a some XLF (through FAZ) and gold miners (through GDXD) and long two stocks.

So, should investors be piling into large technology stocks? I don't think so, though they have been. To me, they still seem expensive after years of rallying and make up too much of the NASDAQ 100. Inflation risks remain, and the U.S. suffers from a massive level of debt. I am glad to see investors steering clear of the majority of the Magnificent 7 recently, but it could get a lot worse in my view.